Q1 2026 marked a decisive shift in market leadership as inflation and geopolitical tensions replaced liquidity and AI enthusiasm as the primary drivers of asset prices. Commodities surged, bonds and equities faced renewed volatility, and long-term opportunities in critical minerals and food security became increasingly compelling.

The Iran conflict is not just a geopolitical shock, it may mark a deeper shift toward structurally higher inflation. As fiscal expansion meets supply constraints, investors may need to rethink portfolios for a “higher for longer” world.

March 2026 saw a sharp repricing of global risk as escalating conflict in the Middle East triggered a major energy shock, reignited inflation concerns, and weighed heavily on equities, bonds, and business sentiment.

Geopolitical tensions, resurgent inflation, tighter energy markets and fragile supply chains are all pointing to higher risk, yet credit spreads remain unusually calm. This divergence highlights a dangerous complacency in markets, where downside risks may still be significantly underpriced.