The $150 Million Question: Insight, Instinct, or Insider Information?

On the night of October 10, 2025, at 20:50 UTC, a single post from President Donald Trump sent shockwaves through global markets. His announcement of a 100% tariff on all Chinese imports triggered immediate panic. Within minutes, digital assets fell sharply and by the next morning, US$19 billion in leveraged positions had been liquidated, the largest one-day wipeout in crypto history.

Amid this volatility, one trade stood out: a US$1.1 billion short position on Bitcoin and Ether, opened 30 hours before the announcement and closed minutes afterward, reportedly generating US$150 million in profit.

Tracing the Trade

The position was executed on Hyperliquid, a decentralised derivatives exchange where every trade and margin adjustment are visible on-chain.

Key observations from the blockchain:

Initial US$80 million deposit followed by large Bitcoin and Ether short positions.

Incremental increases to the position in the hours leading up to the announcement.

Rapid closure post-announcement, with proceeds returned to the original wallet.

The transparency of Hyperliquid allowed the entire sequence to be observed in real time — something that would be impossible on traditional centralised exchanges.

Speculation and Analysis

The trade sparked significant discussion. Some analysts linked the wallet to a former exchange executive who denied any wrongdoing, stating the trades were a hedge for a client’s holdings. Others speculated about insider information or political connections. While no proof has emerged, the precision of the trade remains noteworthy.

Hyperliquid’s model demonstrates the dual nature of decentralised finance:

Strength: full transparency and verifiability

Challenge: public scrutiny and speculation

Lessons for Investors

Whether the trade reflected macro insight, strategic hedging, or information advantage, the blockchain only records the what, not the why.

For professional investors, the key takeaways are:

• Markets operate globally and in real time.

• Transparency enables accountability but does not convey intent.

• Understanding context remains the most important edge.

In an era where every trade is visible and every position traceable, can true intent ever remain hidden?