India at a Crossroads: Risk or Opportunity for Investors?

India: Navigating Tariffs, Oil, and Market Opportunity

On 7 August, President Trump imposed an additional 25% tariff on Indian exports, lifting total duties to 50%, among the highest on any U.S. trading partner. The move follows stalled trade talks and concerns over India’s continued imports of Russian oil.

Impact snapshot

• $87B in Indian exports to the U.S. face pressure

• Around 55% of outbound shipments affected (textiles, gems, footwear)

• Risks to GDP growth, potentially slipping below 6%

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  INR and equities react to rising geopolitical risk

Oil remains India’s key vulnerability

• 88% of oil is imported

• Russian oil now accounts over 35% of supply

• Higher prices could weigh on the current account and growth

Does recent volatility change the investment outlook for India?

At Intrasia Wealth, we think the structural story remains compelling.

• Tariffs appear tactical with trade talks resuming on 25th August

• U.S. goods exports are just 2.2% of India’s GDP

• Less than 8% of MSCI India revenues come from the U.S., mostly IT 

• Earnings forecasts remain strong:

  • FY26: 11.6%

  • FY27: 14.1%

• Domestic investor flows are deepening resilience

  
  

While sentiment may soften temporarily, the structural case remains intact. It is powered by consumption, reform, and retail participation.

We view short-term market weakness as a long-term opportunity.