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India: Navigating Tariffs, Oil, and Market Opportunity
On 7 August, President Trump imposed an additional 25% tariff on Indian exports, lifting total duties to 50%, among the highest on any U.S. trading partner. The move follows stalled trade talks and concerns over India’s continued imports of Russian oil.
Impact snapshot
- $87B in Indian exports to the U.S. face pressure
- Around 55% of outbound shipments affected (textiles, gems, footwear)
- Risks to GDP growth, potentially slipping below 6%
- INR and equities react to rising geopolitical risk
Oil remains India’s key vulnerability
- 88% of oil is imported
- Russian oil now accounts over 35% of supply
- Higher prices could weigh on the current account and growth
Does recent volatility change the investment outlook for India?
At Intrasia Wealth, we think the structural story remains compelling.
- Tariffs appear tactical with trade talks resuming on 25th August
- U.S. goods exports are just 2.2% of India’s GDP
- Less than 8% of MSCI India revenues come from the U.S., mostly IT
Earnings forecasts remain strong:
- FY26: 11.6%
- FY27: 14.1%
- Domestic investor flows are deepening resilience
While sentiment may soften temporarily, the structural case remains intact. It is powered by consumption, reform, and retail participation.
We view short-term market weakness as a long-term opportunity.
This article is general market commentary, not investment advice or a personal recommendation. The value of investments can fall as well as rise, and past performance is not a guide to future returns. Written and reviewed under our editorial standards.
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